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Syria foils possible Israeli attack on Iran |
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Syria foils possible Israeli attack on Iran
Israel’s recent penetration of Syrian airspace has raised many questions of a potential military conflict in the Middle East which would have devastating consequences for the entire region. The strategy of the Israeli Airforce to enter Syria is unclear. However, it is apparent that the Israeli Airforce was taken by surprise by the instant response of Syrian air defences.
It appears that Israeli intelligence has miscalculated Syrias capability. This is highlighted by the fact that, perhaps, Israel ‘assumed’ that the area which their airforce invaded was not necessarily ‘strategically’ defended by Syria. The airspace invaded by Israel is the Tal Abyadh area which is in the northeast of Syria. This area is considered ‘too far off’ for Israel to penetrate plus the fact that it is near the Turkish-Iraqi border. Turkey is known to be an ‘ally’ of the US and the Iraqi territory is under US control.
Question Marks
The invasion of Turkish airspace, and perhaps Jordanian, raises further questions. The Turkish army found fuel tanks which probably belonged to Israeli warplanes. This indicates that the Israeli warplanes entered Turkey to ‘flee’ from Syrian defences.
According to analysts, Israeli warplanes were not on scouting missions to test Syrian air defence capabilities, as this could have been done near Damascus, where strategic and political headquarters are located.
Analysts are more convinced that Israel was planning to launch an air strike on Iranian targets and were exploring air passages that Syrian air defences could not detect so as to launch a surprise attack on Iran.
According to this analogy, it is possible that Israeli planes took advantage of the overlapping borders between Syria, Turkey and Iraq. Further, this area has enough activity by American and Turkish planes which would ‘distract’ the Syrians from detecting the Israeli warplanes.
Exploration
Arab military experts and strategic analysts have confirmed that Israel’s action is evidence of an imminent military operation in the Middle East. They told Fact International that the expected operation is not necessarily against Syria but could be against a country that has good relations with Syria such as Iran, or against a faction that enjoys Syrian support, like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza.
Major General Husam Sweilem, a strategic expert, told Fact International, that the Israeli penetration into Syrian skies was not the first, and would not be the last.
“Last summer, the Israeli air forces infiltrated Syrian skies and flew high above one of the palaces in Latakia, where President Assad used to spend most of the summer season”, said Sweilem. He added that “apparently, this penetration is a message of caution from Tel Aviv to Damascus, and the aim behind this message is to warn Syria against interfering in the Lebanese presidential elections scheduled to be held on 24 September. It may also be a warning to Syria to stop supporting Iran and Hamas”.
According to Sweilem, the infiltration reminds Syria that it is vulnerable not only from the Golan front but also from the Mediterranean side.
“It may also aim to weaken Syria’s confidence in the $7 billion worth of air defence systems that it recently purchased from Russia”, Sweilem added.
Rehearsal of History
An expert in strategic affairs, Major General Sayyed Jaberi, called upon Syrian leaders to re-examine the war of 1967. He indicated that Israel’s penetration of Syrian skies is a scenario that was implemented in 1967 shortly before the war was launched.
He said, “Israel has apparently decided to take Syria to war with a hope that Israel would gain some of the dignity it lost following the war against southern Lebanon last summer.”
Letter of warning
Ambassador Mohammad Basyouni believes that Israel has several objectives behind the operation regardless of its denial. Amongst these objectives are exploring Syrian sites and testing the new Syrian defence capabilities following its purchase of a new missile system from Russia. The third objective behind the infiltration is giving Syria, Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah a warning.
Demonstration of power
Chief of External Affairs in the Egyptian People’s Council, Dr. Mustafa Al-Faqy, said that the incident was a demonstration of Israel’s power and a reminder of its presence in the ‘silent’ war with Syria. Faqy said: “Israel’s penetration of Syrian skies is not something new as Israeli warplanes flew over the president’s palace in Latakia previously. This aimed to convey a message to countries in the region that Israel still existed and that all Arab skies were open to its warplanes.”
Military warning
It is apparent that Syria foiled a huge Israeli plan to convey a military warning to Iran. This of course would not have been possible without prior coordination with the US who has the ability to convince Turkish leaders to be silent about such activity and to provide a lifeline in an emergency situation, especially in the light of joint security agreements between Turkey and Israel.
Zionist failure
In military and political terms, it could be said that Israel has suffered a serious loss as it failed to fulfil a mission, regardless of its exact objectives. Also, international condemnation and concern was expressed by the UN Secretary General raising further doubts about the credibility of Israeli leaders.
Syrian success
The swift response of Syrian air defences has made the Israeli and US intelligence experts examine the effectiveness of both Syria’s and Iran’s air defence systems. These intelligence sources speculated that Iran had received, and had operational, at least three or four batteries out of the ten that Iran had purchased to reinforce its air arsenal. They also speculated that the total number of batteries Iran would receive was around 50 while Syria would get 36.
Comprehensive war
A recent European report said that “despite international attempts to diffuse a probable war in the Middle East, concerned parties continue with military preparations as if such attempts for a political solution are only a facade for actual intentions for war”.
In addition, informed European security sources said that “officials and experts in Europe and the US believe they are racing against time in their attempts to solve the problems in the Middle East. These include the Iranian nuclear crisis, Syria’s dispute with the West and Israel, Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon, the deteriorating situation in Iraq and the Palestinian problem; as such matters have become ramified to form the so-called war on terrorism”.
Sources added that “military preparations are being taken by all parties that have a direct role in the pending war, namely Iran, Israel, the US, Syria, Hezbollah and some militant Iraqi and Palestinian groups”.
Source : fact int-amman |
© 2008 - Darul Ihsan Islamic Services Centre
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